Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Any Nation Trading with Iran, Targeting China and Key Oil Buyers
United States President Donald Trump has escalated pressure on Iran by declaring that any country doing business with the Islamic Republic will face a 25% tariff on goods sold to the United States. The announcement, made via Trump's Truth Social platform on Monday, stated the order is "final and conclusive," though no official White House documentation or details on legal authority were provided.
The threat comes as Iran grapples with its most severe protests in decades, fueled by economic hardship from years of Western sanctions, high inflation, unemployment, and the collapse of the rial. Iran's economy heavily relies on oil exports, with China emerging as its primary lifeline.
China, Iran's largest trading partner since 2016, officially recorded over $13 billion in bilateral trade in 2024 according to UN Comtrade data, though shadow trade pushes estimates as high as $37 billion (World Bank 2022 figures). Beijing imported approximately 80% of Iran's oil last year, alongside plastics, chemicals, iron ore, and methanol. The proposed tariff would stack on top of the existing 35% duties on Chinese goods entering the US, potentially jeopardizing a recent trade truce and Trump's planned April visit to Beijing. Chinese officials swiftly condemned the move, with the embassy in Washington rejecting "illicit unilateral sanctions" and the Foreign Ministry declaring "no one wins in a trade war" while vowing to defend national interests.
Türkiye ranks second with $5.7 billion in 2024 trade, already facing elevated US tariffs on steel and aluminum (up to 50%). Pakistan and India follow, with Iranian exports worth $1.2 billion and $1.05 billion respectively; both nations already contend with high US duties on key sectors, and India faces reports of potential 500% tariffs for Russian oil purchases.
Iran's oil exports have been devastated by US "maximum pressure" sanctions reimposed after Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018. Exports plummeted from 2.2 million barrels per day in 2011 to a low of 400,000 bpd in 2020, recovering only to about 1.5 million bpd in 2025. Overall exports reached $22.9 billion in 2024, representing roughly 5% of Iran's $475 billion GDP.
In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned in an Al Jazeera interview that Tehran is "ready for war" if the US pursues military options, while urging dialogue. The tariff threat adds another layer to Trump's aggressive stance, which includes recent considerations of military strikes and follows US involvement in Israel's brief June war with Iran.
Analysts warn the policy could disrupt global trade flows, strain US relations with major partners, and further isolate Iran without necessarily curbing its nuclear ambitions or domestic policies.
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