Russia Stays Silent on Iran Protests, Unlikely to Intervene to Avoid 'Reputation Failure'

 

Short Summary 

Moscow has adopted a cautious, muted response to ongoing mass protests in Iran over economic hardships, with experts saying Russia believes the unrest has peaked and Tehran's regime has regained control. The Kremlin remained silent for weeks before condemning "Western pressure" and alleged "colour revolution" tactics on Tuesday. Analysts, including former diplomat Boris Bondarev, argue Russia is unlikely to intervene militarily or strongly, fearing another "reputation failure" amid its Ukraine war strains and reliance on Iranian support. Despite a recent strategic partnership treaty signed January 17, 2025, the agreement lacks mutual defense clauses. Putin has not commented, mirroring his silence on other ally crises, as Russia prioritizes domestic survival and potential US deals over risking escalation in Iran.

Long Summary

Russia's response to the widespread protests in Iran—sparked by economic woes on December 28, 2025, and spreading across hundreds of cities—has been notably restrained, reflecting Moscow's confidence that the unrest poses no existential threat to Tehran's leadership. Iran expert Nikita Smagin, citing embassy reports, told Al Jazeera the Kremlin views the protests as subdued, allowing it to "breathe a sigh of relief." Initial silence lasted nearly two weeks, reportedly to avoid complicating ties with potential new Iranian authorities if the regime fell.

On Tuesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry broke its quiet with a statement condemning "illegal Western pressure" and accusing unnamed "external forces" of orchestrating "colour revolutions"—a longstanding Kremlin narrative applied to uprisings in former Soviet states, the Arab Spring, and now Iran. Spokeswoman Mariya Zakharova decried US President Donald Trump's threats of intervention as "categorically unacceptable," while noting a "decline" in protests could lead to stabilization.

Despite deep ties—including Iran's supply of drones and munitions for Russia's Ukraine war, and a 20-year strategic partnership signed January 17, 2025, by Presidents Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian—the pact includes no military assistance obligations. Former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who resigned over Ukraine, emphasized Moscow's reluctance to "rattle sabres," warning it would only invite "another reputation failure." With Western sanctions hobbling its economy and public fatigue from the Ukraine conflict, Russia lacks leverage against potential US actions in Iran and fears jeopardizing concessions in ongoing Ukraine negotiations.

This approach echoes Russia's handling of Bashar al-Assad's fall in Syria (2024), where Moscow quickly secured deals with the new leadership. Pro-Kremlin analyst Sergey Markov suggested post-protest "reforms" with Russian advice, but intervention remains off the table. Ordinary Russians, per one interviewee, are preoccupied with domestic hardships rather than distant allies.

Analysts note Iran's accusations of foreign meddling, including alleged Israeli involvement, align with Moscow's worldview of protests as externally driven. With over 100 security personnel reportedly killed and higher unverified protester deaths amid internet blackouts, the crisis underscores Russia's pragmatic prioritization of self-preservation over active defense of its "axis of resistance" partner.