Rising Tensions: Israel's Eastern Mediterranean Alliances Seen as Containment Strategy Against Türkiye
Two pivotal meetings in late December 2025 underscored the diverging strategic paths in the Eastern Mediterranean and Levant, intensifying concerns that the region is emerging as a new indirect front between Israel and Türkiye.
On December 22, Turkish officials met Syrian counterparts in Damascus to support post-Assad stabilization and central authority restoration. Simultaneously, Israel hosted Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides for a trilateral summit in Jerusalem, expanding cooperation from energy to security and military domains.
Just days earlier, Israel conducted airstrikes in Syria—part of over 600 in 2025—signaling its intent to disrupt Syria's recovery, which aligns with Türkiye's priorities.
Experts view the Israel-Greece-Cyprus framework as evolving into a containment axis against Türkiye. Retired Turkish Admiral Cem Gurdeniz, architect of the "Blue Homeland" doctrine, described it as an effort "to exclude and encircle Türkiye," aiming for behavioral change by narrowing Ankara's strategic space without direct war.
Israel favors a fragmented regional landscape, clashing with Türkiye's push for Syrian unity. Greece and Cyprus use the partnership to advance maritime claims marginalizing Türkiye, including exclusive economic zones (EEZs) disputed in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean.
Muzaffer Senel of Marmara University noted the trio's unilateral actions create faits accomplis against a "common rival: Türkiye," with growing US involvement in a "3+1" format sending a clear message to Ankara.
The Jerusalem meeting also reflected Israel's isolation amid the Gaza war and ICC arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Hosting allies there avoided travel risks, while Netanyahu's remarks warning against "re-establishing empires" were widely seen as targeting Türkiye.
Despite Gaza criticisms from some EU states, Greece and Cyprus have deepened ties with Israel, including major arms deals: Greece's $760m purchase of Israeli rocket systems and a potential $3.5bn air defense pact; Cyprus's receipt of Israeli systems.
Türkiye downplayed the summit militarily but vowed to defend its rights, accelerating an $8bn naval buildup with 31 ships in 2025 to counter exclusion.
Analysts warn Israel's actions—from Syrian strikes to recognizing Somaliland—exploit fractures to undermine Türkiye-backed stabilization.
Andreas Krieg of King's College London urged Türkiye to respond practically: expose Israeli operations, build alternatives with Arab states like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and prevent Israeli security gains in southern Syria or a boxed-in Mediterranean position.
As energy routes, maritime claims, and post-Assad dynamics intersect, the Eastern Mediterranean risks becoming a prolonged arena of indirect rivalry, with Israel's alliances challenging Türkiye's regional ambitions and heightening destabilization prospects.
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