Lebanese Fear Trump Gave Netanyahu 'Green Light' for New Offensive Against Hezbollah

 

Short Summary

Lebanese citizens are increasingly fearful of a renewed full-scale Israeli invasion following reports that US President Donald Trump gave Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a "green light" during their December 29 Florida meeting to intensify actions against Hezbollah. Despite a November 2024 ceasefire, Israel has violated it over 10,000 times according to the UN, launching near-daily attacks—including 25 on one Sunday alone—while retaining control of five positions in south Lebanon. Hezbollah has largely refrained from responding, and the Lebanese Army claims to have completed disarming the group south of the Litani River. However, Israel disputes this, accusing ongoing rearmament. Residents in the south describe a tense "calm" punctuated by strikes, convinced future escalation depends on US-Israeli agreements rather than local compliance.

Long Summary 

In Beirut and southern Lebanon, anxiety is mounting over the prospect of another devastating war with Israel, fueled by perceptions that the Trump administration has emboldened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to escalate military actions against Hezbollah. Reports in Arab and Israeli media suggest that during their December 29 meeting in Florida, Trump assured Netanyahu of US support for intensified operations if Hezbollah is not fully disarmed, reportedly stating that if the Lebanese Army fails, Israel should take necessary action.

The fragile ceasefire agreed in November 2024—after a 2024 escalation that killed over 4,000 Lebanese, displaced a quarter of the population, and saw Israeli ground invasions—required Israel to withdraw troops within two months, Hezbollah to retreat north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese Army to deploy in the south. While Hezbollah has mostly ceased military responses and the Lebanese Army announced on January 8 that it completed disarming non-state actors south of the Litani, Israel maintains control of five strategic areas and continues near-daily strikes. The UN has documented over 10,000 Israeli ceasefire violations, including dozens in recent weeks.

Israel's Foreign Ministry rejects Lebanese claims of compliance, alleging "extensive Hezbollah military infrastructure" remains and accusing the army of collaboration without evidence. UNIFIL commanders and analysts counter that there is no sign of Hezbollah regrouping, describing the group as significantly weakened.

Locals in the south, still grappling with displacement and reconstruction challenges, view the attacks as routine yet ominous. Journalist Kamel Jaber from Nabatieh described periods of quiet interrupted by intense raids, while farmer Ali Attieh bluntly stated, "Israel wants to wage war." Many Lebanese believe escalation now hinges on US policy rather than on-the-ground realities, contrasting with Trump's earlier restraint on Israel regarding Iran.

The situation risks internal Lebanese tensions, as disarming Hezbollah enjoys broad support outside its Shia base, but forced implementation amid ongoing Israeli aggression could spark violence. As strikes disrupt rebuilding efforts in predominantly Shia areas like the south, Bekaa Valley, and Beirut's Dahiyeh—where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed—fears grow that the 2024 devastation could repeat on a larger scale.