Europe Urged to Brace for Potential US Annexation of Greenland, Collapse of NATO
Emboldened by the January 3 US operation that abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, President Donald Trump has intensified his long-standing desire to annex Greenland, raising alarms that it could effectively dismantle NATO and advance Russia's objectives in Ukraine, according to leading security experts.
In an interview with The Atlantic on January 4, Trump reiterated: "We do need Greenland, absolutely. We need it for defence." White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller reinforced this, stating it has been the administration's formal position that Greenland should become part of the United States.
Analysts see the Venezuela action as a precedent for dominating the Western Hemisphere, which geographically includes Greenland. "The move on Venezuela illustrates the Trump administration’s determination to dominate the Western Hemisphere – of which Greenland geographically is a part," said Anna Wieslander, Northern Europe director at the Atlantic Council.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen responded gravely: "If the United States decides to attack another NATO country, then everything would stop – that includes NATO and therefore post-World War II security." She urged taking Trump's threats seriously.
Experts agree that any US use of force against Denmark over Greenland would gut NATO's Article 5 mutual defense clause. "Should the darkest hour come and the United States uses military force to annex Greenland, the essence of Article 5 and collective defence within NATO would lose its meaning," Wieslander warned.
University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer described it as a potential "deadly one-two combination" with Russia's war in Ukraine: "NATO would be a shadow of itself. It would effectively be wrecked."
Such a scenario would align US and Russian ideologies on spheres of influence, leaving Europe as an "island of liberalism" in a world dominated by great-power realpolitik. "The idea that larger powers can have a free hand in what they regard as their own back yard is very much to Russia’s taste," said Keir Giles of Chatham House, calling it a massive gift to Moscow.
Despite the threats, European leaders remained silent on Greenland during recent Paris talks on Ukraine security guarantees, prioritizing keeping the US engaged. However, behind the scenes, contingency planning is underway.
Giles advocated immediate deterrence: deploying allied forces to Greenland now, similar to post-2014 reinforcements in the Baltics and Poland. French and German officials have signaled coordinated action, with France previously demonstrating resolve by sending a nuclear submarine near Canadian waters.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while planning talks with Denmark, refused to rule out military options, citing national security threats.
Experts are split on Trump's approach: some foresee a quick military "pinprick" operation, given his recent interventions in Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela; others predict coercion, subversion, or incentivizing Greenland's autonomy movement. Reports suggest Trump is considering per capita payments of $10,000–$100,000 to Greenlanders to join the US. Greenlandic opposition leader Pele Broberg has called for direct US talks, bypassing Denmark.
Trump frames the pursuit as vital for defense and economic security, citing Arctic shipping routes, rare minerals, and countering Russia/China. The US already operates the strategic Pituffik Space Base under a 1953 agreement allowing full military access.
As melting Arctic ice opens new routes and resources, competition intensifies. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned against a "den of robbers" world where great powers seize territory at will.
With Trump's pattern of bold actions escalating, Europe faces a pivotal moment: deter now or risk a fractured transatlantic order that undermines global security for decades.
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